Wine Basics
Wine Investing
Apr 24, 2025
Mouton Rothschild - should I buy the 2005, the 2009, or the 1982? Well.. maybe none of them
Chateau Mouton Rothschild
The theme of this week’s newsletter is how to understand value within a label.
Let me first caveat this by saying that there is no one size fits all method here. As with all wine investing, or wine as a whole – there are variables specific to region, sub-region, age, producer across any number of axes.
However, there are rules of thumb that you can follow.
An industry standard method is to look at price per critic point. This number of critic points out of 100, or 20 that a wine receives by the price of the given vintage.
If the 2005 got 100 points and is worth £100 then you are paying £1 per critic point.
If the 2009 got 95 points and is worth £90, then you are paying about 95p per critic point.
If the label average is 98p per critic point, then you could infer that the 2009 is relatively undervalued, and the 2005 overvalued.
It is important not to take this as a quick fix investment method. For starters, as WineFi ‘s Data Tsar Aaran Daniel would probably tell you, it’s worth removing outliers.
To use an extreme example – if the 2004 got 70 points, then it is (according to that critic) a much worse wine. It is likely that secondary market demand will be lower, and it is very unlikely to age as well as the higher scoring vintages. So even if it only costs 50p now – there’s a much lower chance of appreciation.
You can see this visualised below.
Ask Aaran Price Per Critic Point logged against Average Critic Score
According to this chart, the best value wines are those for which the average critic score is much higher than the price per point.
This is not accounting for critic score inflation, ‘legendary vintages’ commanding cult status, or anything else.
It also is unlikely to be a linear relationship – the extra point between a 99 and 100 may mean more than the difference between an 89 and a 90.
What we have found at WineFi is that there typically seems to have been a middle ground. Value is baked in at release for the 100 pointers of the world, and the low scorers are less likely to age well, or have secondary market demand. Look for wines in the sweet spot, wines that have scored fairly well, where similar scoring vintages command a higher price. Hence the title.
This is of course assuming that you’ve done the work on the label level. As seen in Aaran’s recent post. A good value vintage of L’if is still unlikely to net you any returns.
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When is the Best Time to Invest in Fine Wine?
The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.
But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?
In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.
The Findings at a Glance
Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:
🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.
🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.
📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.
⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.
Why This Matters for Investors
Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.
By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:
Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.
Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.
Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.
The Limits (and Power) of the Data
While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.
Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.
Final Pour
The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.
In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.
