Wine Basics
Wine Investing
Apr 24, 2025
Logic at Scale
How does one select wines with value?
Lots has been made recently of young vintages being released at more expensive prices than a similarly scoring – but more mature – vintage.
You hear a variation on the below often..
“Chateau Plonk just released their 2023s at £250 / bottle. They only got a 92 from my favourite critic – Jacques Hyperbolé. I could buy a bottle of the 2014 for £160, and Hyperbolé gave that a 96!
So how do you work out the best value wines? For every vintage of every label of every producer you compare the relative price points, maturity, critic scores, vintage quality and a number of other factors.
You then pick the wines that seem to be undervalued based on your comparison to other vintages, other labels, other wines etc.
By the time you’ve done this for the last 10 years in Burgundy – they probably will have released the newest set of wines.
By the time you’ve identified the undervalued wines, the prices have probably changed.
This is the point at which the discerning wine investor must gracefully secede to a computer. One thing that computers are much better than humans at is computing lots of values very quickly.
Logic at Scale
Our model does this better than a person can for three reasons.
Firstly, as I said above – it can work out which ones are undervalued by which metric much faster than you can.
When I say much faster I am comparing hours (the computer), to years (the humble wine connoisseur).
Secondly, because we have historic price data – we can actually backtest which of the comparisons actually affects the future value of the wine the most. Not only is the model faster, but it is more accurate.
Thirdly, we can build in variables accounting for the investment characteristics of the wine. We can not only identify undervalued wines, but we can identify which of the undervalued wines shows the most potential for future appreciation.
Have you ever thought “I wonder whether the price of second wines from highly regarded producers acts differently to the first wines…”? or “Do wines from off vintages appreciate at different stages in their lifecycle to wines from good vintages…”?
We have. And we’ve tested it. And it’s factored it into the model.
The Human Touch
As with most deployments of AI that I have come across – this process works best when you combine human expertise.
AI can provide the logic at scale, but ultimately, an experienced eye must interpret the data, apply market context, and make the final decision.
The question is no longer “How do I find the best value wine?”—it’s “How do I best combine technology and experience to maximise returns?”
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When is the Best Time to Invest in Fine Wine?
The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.
But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?
In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.
The Findings at a Glance
Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:
🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.
🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.
📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.
⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.
Why This Matters for Investors
Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.
By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:
Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.
Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.
Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.
The Limits (and Power) of the Data
While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.
Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.
Final Pour
The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.
In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.
