Wine Basics

Wine Investing

Apr 24, 2025

Trump's 200% Tariff: Implications for Fine Wine Markets

Donald Trump’s recent announcement of potential 200% tariffs on wines, Champagnes and spirits from France and the EU has sent ripples through the global wine industry. While the proposal is politically charged and far from guaranteed, it has already sparked volatility in European beverage stocks and prompted concern among négociants, importers and wine investors alike.

The U.S. is a major buyer of EU wine – but from a fine wine investment standpoint, the most important question isn’t what happens to American consumers, but how global wine pricing and allocations might shift as a result of displaced supply and changing market dynamics.

For investors – particularly those buying and storing wines through the UK market – the impact is less about the direct effect of tariffs and more about how Europe and the global trade react. Crucially, this is a story of two vintages: newly released wines are set to face the greatest pressure, while back vintages (mature, in-market wines) may emerge relatively unscathed or even strengthened by the disruption.

With En Primeur season approaching and Bordeaux still seeking market equilibrium, this disruption could either reignite interest or prolong stagnation – depending on how producers and merchants adapt.

This piece explores the divergence in impact between young and mature vintages, potential consequences for UK pricing and allocation, and historical parallels that might shed light on what lies ahead.


New Vintages in the Crosshairs

If implemented, a 200% tariff on EU wine would effectively block recent vintages from accessing the U.S. market – not merely making them less competitive, but outright unviable at current price levels. While the U.S. would absorb the most direct blow, the ripple effect across the global trade is where the pressure truly mounts.

Without U.S. demand, European producers will be forced to redirect stock elsewhere, with the UK likely absorbing a larger share. For wines released this year and next – including the upcoming 2024 Bordeaux En Primeur campaign – producers may need to either further lower prices to stimulate demand from UK and Asian markets, or limit volumes and hold back stock in anticipation of a future rebound.

Either option changes the investment landscape significantly. A genuine effort from châteaux to cut release prices (as seen with the 2019 vintage during COVID and previous tariff threats) could finally provide the reset Bordeaux needs to re-engage investors. On the other hand, if pricing remains firm and quantities tighten, supply-side scarcity could keep upward pressure on values of mature stock.

Wines currently being released – from the 2020, 2021 and 2022 vintages – may also see short-term price softness in the UK market as a result of increased availability. If wines intended for U.S. allocation are rerouted, UK merchants will have more to sell – but not necessarily more demand. That imbalance could benefit opportunistic buyers looking to acquire young wines at more attractive prices.


Back Vintages: Largely Shielded

In stark contrast, mature back vintages – particularly those already in bond or with strong global distribution – face little downside risk from the proposed tariffs. These wines are already in circulation, with pricing well-established, and critically, they are not affected by new import duties.

In fact, in a scenario where new vintages become logistically and financially constrained, back vintages may experience a relative boost in demand – especially concentrated in the US. Collectors, merchants and drinkers unable or unwilling to pay tariff-laden prices for new wines will likely shift focus to existing stock. This is especially true at the high end, where drinking wines like Petrus or Latour are rarely priced on marginal cost – the buyer is more concerned with provenance, condition and access than with an incremental price rise.

Moreover, WineFi investors and others operating outside traditional allocation systems are at an advantage here. With flexibility to select vintages with the best appreciation potential, and no need to absorb specific releases, portfolios can remain focused on relative value, maturity curves, and scarcity – rather than pipeline availability.

Should the UK market experience any pricing softness from rerouted stock, the value proposition of back vintages only grows stronger. They become the stable, appreciating reference point against which discounted young wines are measured – a dynamic we’ve seen before during market dislocations.


Global Pricing Pressure – More UK Supply, Softer New Vintage Prices

Although the U.S. won’t be importing much EU wine under a 200% tariff, those wines still need to be sold somewhere. That ‘somewhere’ is likely to be the UK – the most active secondary market globally, and still a preferred destination for producers seeking visibility, bonded storage, and global redistribution.

More supply in the UK – particularly of newly released vintages – is likely to put downwards pressure on prices in the near term. This won’t affect all wines equally. As discussed, back vintages are (relatively) insulated, and high-demand labels will still find homes quickly. But lesser wines, or vintages already viewed with caution (such as 2021), may struggle.

This could create attractive entry points for investors willing to take a medium – to long-term view. Much like the 2019 En Primeur campaign, which saw deep discounts and strong returns once normal market activity resumed, a tariff-driven dip in pricing could set the stage for outperformance once equilibrium returns.


Outlook for En Primeur: Tariffs as Catalyst for Reset?

With the 2024 Bordeaux En Primeur campaign looming, all eyes are on pricing strategy. The market already expects moderation after a patchy 2023 campaign, and the threat of U.S. withdrawal from the demand equation could tip the balance toward widespread cuts and more competitive releases.

There are two plausible paths:

  1. Châteaux lower prices meaningfully, recognising the need to re-engage global buyers and stimulate uptake. This could finally provide the jolt Bordeaux needs to regain momentum, and would benefit investors acquiring at cycle lows.

  2. Châteaux restrict release volumes, maintaining high prices but allocating less wine for sale. This delays revenue but may prove prudent if producers expect the U.S. to return in future years. A tighter market with less availability could be bullish for existing stockholders.

Either way, WineFi and its investors are well-positioned: not locked into allocations, and focused on wines with long-term value potential. Should pricing soften, the opportunity to enter Bordeaux at multi-year lows could be compelling.


Conclusion: A Tale of Two Vintages

Trump’s proposed tariffs could create a sharp divergence in the fine wine market. Newer vintages, particularly those awaiting release or still in the primary market, face headwinds: more supply in Europe and the UK, fewer buyers, and pressure on pricing. For investors, this could present selective buying opportunities, particularly if pricing is rationalised across regions.

Back vintages, by contrast, are well insulated. Already in circulation, unaffected by duties, and often with established provenance and scarcity, they may become relatively more desirable as the market navigates disruption. As seen in prior episodes – whether trade tariffs or COVID-induced slowdowns – those who hold through volatility often emerge with the strongest gains.

In the end, while such tariffs may create near-term dislocation, they also reinforce the importance of selectivity, flexibility, and long-term focus in wine investing. WineFi’s model – unconstrained by allocations and built around conviction-led acquisition – is well suited to navigate this environment.

The market may shift. Value will remain – if you know where to look.

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Wine Basics

Wine Investing

Aug 10, 2025

When is the Best Time to Invest in Fine Wine?

The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.

But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?

In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.

The Findings at a Glance

Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:

  • 🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.

  • 🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.

  • 📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.

  • ⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.

Why This Matters for Investors

Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.

By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:

  • Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.

  • Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.

  • Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.

The Limits (and Power) of the Data

While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.

Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.

Final Pour

The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.

In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.


Wine Basics

Wine Investing

Jul 14, 2025

WineFi Q2 2025 Quarterly Report

In Q2 2025, we have seen a stabilisation in wine market prices. In this quarterly report we dive into this finding to understand how list prices compare to trade prices, along with macro-analysis and regional comparisons.

In this edition, we explore:

🏦 Macroeconomic Analysis and the Effect on Wine Markets

📈 How Wine Compares to Other Assets

⚖️ Wine Market Stabilisation?

🔀 List Prices vs Trade Prices

🌍 Regional Performance Breakdown


Wine Basics

Wine Investing

Apr 24, 2025

WineFi Q1 2025 Quarterly Report

We’re pleased to share our Q1 2025 Quarterly Report, offering a concise, data-driven overview of fine wine’s performance in the first quarter of the year. As macroeconomic pressures persist and traditional markets continue to fluctuate, fine wine’s role as an alternative asset class remains in sharp focus.

In this edition, we explore:

🏦 Macroeconomic Analysis and the Effect on Wine Markets

📈 How Wine Compares to Other Assets

⚖️ Wine Market Stabilisation?

🌍 Regional Performance Breakdown



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Gain exposure to the wine markets in just a few clicks.

By submitting this form you are agreeing to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

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Capital is at risk. Wine values can go down as well as up, and investments may not perform as expected. Returns may vary. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose. WineFi is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Investments are not regulated and you will have no access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) or the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS). Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results and should not be relied on. Forecasts are based on WineFi’s own internal calculations and opinions and may change. Investments are illiquid. Once invested, you are committed for the full term. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change.

You are advised to obtain appropriate tax or investment advice where necessary.

WineFi is a trading name of WineFi Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales with registration number: 14864655 and whose registered office is at 5th Floor, 167-169 Great Portland Street, London, United Kingdom, W1W 5PF.

Join our newsletter

Get the latest WineFi news and press delivered straight to your inbox.

Capital is at risk. Wine values can go down as well as up, and investments may not perform as expected. Returns may vary. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose. WineFi is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Investments are not regulated and you will have no access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) or the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS). Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results and should not be relied on. Forecasts are based on WineFi’s own internal calculations and opinions and may change. Investments are illiquid. Once invested, you are committed for the full term. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change.

You are advised to obtain appropriate tax or investment advice where necessary.

WineFi is a trading name of WineFi Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales with registration number: 14864655 and whose registered office is at 5th Floor, 167-169 Great Portland Street, London, United Kingdom, W1W 5PF.

Join our newsletter

Get the latest WineFi news and press delivered straight to your inbox.

Capital is at risk. Wine values can go down as well as up, and investments may not perform as expected. Returns may vary. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose. WineFi is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Investments are not regulated and you will have no access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) or the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS). Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results and should not be relied on. Forecasts are based on WineFi’s own internal calculations and opinions and may change. Investments are illiquid. Once invested, you are committed for the full term. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change.

You are advised to obtain appropriate tax or investment advice where necessary.

WineFi is a trading name of WineFi Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales with registration number: 14864655 and whose registered office is at 5th Floor, 167-169 Great Portland Street, London, United Kingdom, W1W 5PF.