Wine Basics
Wine Investing
Apr 24, 2025
Bordeaux - where has it gone wrong?
If you follow any form of wine investing news, you will likely have heard, read, or listened to people reference the issues facing Bordeaux.
So what is going wrong? And I’m even going to try and add a bit of nuance…
Muted Performance.
Over the last 5 years, the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 index has underperformed the major indices for Burgundy, Champagne, Italy, California, and even Port!
Why?
The Bordeaux market has En Primeur at its foundation.
“Whistle-stop description of En Primeur for the uninitiated – It’s a way to buy wine early, while it’s still aging. Buyers get access to limited wines at pre-release prices, with the potential for their value to grow by the time they’re bottled and delivered. Effectively — wine futures.”
En Primeur prices used to be the cheapest price that you would ever be able to buy a case of premium Bordeaux. They are sold via allocation, the more you’re willing to spend (especially on the less in-demand wines), the more of the premium wines you are allowed to buy.
The problem is that En Primeur prices have outpaced the market.
Effectively, the producers are releasing the new wines at prices that are too high and do not reflect
Some wines that were sold En Primeur in 2023 and haven’t even been released for drinking yet, and are already trading below their official release prices. Investors and drinkers alike don’t think these wines are worth En Primeur prices. So they don’t buy them.
This creates an issue for La Place.
“Whistle-stop description of La Place for the uninitiated – La Place de Bordeaux is a historic wine distribution system where châteaux work with a network of négociants / brokers to sell and distribute their wines globally.”
Bordeaux négociants make their money by distributing Bordelaise wines to the global market. When the global markets reject those wines the négociants and merchants are left sitting on a load of stock that they had to buy to keep their allocations.
This causes liquidity issues, as can be expected when you spend money on items that people used to buy from you, but have stopped doing. To save the balance sheet, Bordeaux stock-holders will need to sell their stock at a lower price, dampening the prices of the entire list, not just the most recent release.
I have gone on for a while here, so it looks like we may need a part 2…
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When is the Best Time to Invest in Fine Wine?
The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.
But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?
In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.
The Findings at a Glance
Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:
🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.
🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.
📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.
⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.
Why This Matters for Investors
Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.
By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:
Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.
Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.
Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.
The Limits (and Power) of the Data
While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.
Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.
Final Pour
The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.
In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.
