WineFi Q1 2026 Quarterly Report

Q1 2026 Wine Market Report: Recovery Gains Momentum

The fine wine market delivered its strongest quarterly performance in nearly four years during Q1 2026, with multiple indicators pointing to a sustained and broadening recovery. Below, we summarise the principal findings from our latest quarterly report.

Trade Prices Post Third Consecutive Quarter of Growth

The WineFi Trade Price Index rose 3.1% in Q1 2026, representing the largest single-quarter advance since Q3 2022 and - critically - the third consecutive quarter of positive price action. This marks the first such run of consecutive gains since Q1 2022, a development we regard as a significant milestone in the ongoing market recovery.

For the first time in our dataset, trade price risers outpaced fallers: 52.4% of investment-grade wines recorded higher transaction prices quarter-on-quarter, reversing a pattern of persistent negative readings throughout 2024.

Liquidity Conditions Improve Materially

Bid–offer spreads tightened sharply during the quarter, with the mean spread narrowing to 13% and the median to 7%. This compression reflects increased participation on both sides of the market and growing price consensus among buyers and sellers.

The 30-day moving average of total bid exposure on the Liv-ex exchange has maintained a clear upward trajectory since July 2025, underscoring steadily improving underlying demand. Bid-to-offer ratios rose across the Liv-ex 50, 100, and 1000 indices, with the Burgundy 150 ratio surging to its highest level since June 2022 - driven in part by renewed strength in heavyweight producers such as DRC and Domaine Leflaive.

Supply Rising, but Demand Rising Faster

While Q1 did see an increase in available supply - with more wines showing lower list prices and total offer values rising on the Liv-ex exchange - the weight of evidence suggests that demand is strengthening at a faster pace. The convergence of rising bid-offer ratios, improving trade prices, and tightening spreads paints a constructive picture for market participants.

Macro Outlook: The Iran Ceasefire and the Rate Path

The Iran ceasefire has meaningfully shifted the interest rate outlook, with market-implied rate hike expectations falling from three to one and the 2-year gilt yield retreating to approximately 4.1%. Even should a single hike materialise, the impact on fine wine is expected to be limited given the asset class's illiquid nature. Any fiscal response to elevated energy costs - likely involving monetary expansion - has historically proven supportive for fine wine valuations.

Bordeaux En Primeur: A Vintage to Watch

The 2025 vintage, defined by extreme heat and the earliest growing cycle since 1989, is generating considerable anticipation. Yields are estimated at 15% below the five-year average, with early assessments pointing to high concentration, refined tannins, and unexpectedly fresh acidity. Critics have drawn comparisons to the highly regarded 2009 and 2010 vintages. As always, the investment case will ultimately hinge on whether release prices are set at levels that offer genuine value relative to comparable back vintages already available on the secondary market.

Looking Ahead

Three consecutive quarters of rising transaction prices, improving liquidity, and strengthening demand represent a meaningful shift in market momentum. While continued monitoring of supply dynamics remains warranted, the conditions for a broader recovery across both auction and exchange channels are gradually taking shape.

To read the full Q1 2026 Wine Market Report, including detailed charts, data tables, and our complete Bordeaux En Primeur analysis, click the link below.

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