Wine Basics
Wine Investing
Apr 24, 2025
How much is my wine worth?
Fine wine valuation is an art form disguised as a spreadsheet.
The fundamental question:
If I wanted to sell this case of wine, how much would someone be willing to pay for it?
The fundamental answer:
It depends
Selling fine wine can be much like selling a car. If you need to sell it today – there’s always someone who will take it off your hands. They may not, however, be willing to pay you full value – think webuyanycar.com.
If you have an exit strategy, a buyer lined up, or a reliable sales channel, then it’s more likely that you’ll be able to sell it at market value.
So what is market value?
Problems arise (and have arisen) from wine investment companies being opaque about valuation. You hold a wine for 5 years, and the whole time, you are told it is worth £X.
You then go to sell it, and suddenly it’s worth £(X – a lot).
You feel (understandably) misinformed.
If you have a wine portfolio, the below (or a variation of it) is what you should expect from your portfolio manager.
The lowest available offer (to sell) on the market for the exact case and bottle that you own.
However, some problems may arise here.
No offer exists for the specific wine on the market.
The only offer available is for a different format (e.g., a magnum instead of a bottle).
The offer in question pertains to a different quantity (e.g., a single bottle versus a case of three).
The offer data is outdated, potentially months or years old.
The average trade of a wine may be below the average list price.
This is where valuing fine wine becomes an art.
The Liv-ex has recently published a ratio to calculate premiums for non-standard bottle sizes.
What are we doing at WineFi?
Research into the difference between trade prices and list prices.
Research into the premium between bottles and different case sizes.
Research into the premium between non-standard bottle sizes.
Ensuring we have data from as broad a set of marketplaces as possible.
Applying logic to prices that are outdated, or not the exact same format.
Researching ‘price smoothing’ to understand the trajectory of wines that are not frequently traded.
This is a circular problem. It’s easiest to value and sell wines that are frequently traded. However, this part of the fine wine market is not necessarily always the highest returning.
Therefore, we must find ways of quantifying what is not explicitly quantified.
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When is the Best Time to Invest in Fine Wine?
The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.
But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?
In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.
The Findings at a Glance
Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:
🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.
🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.
📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.
⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.
Why This Matters for Investors
Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.
By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:
Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.
Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.
Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.
The Limits (and Power) of the Data
While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.
Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.
Final Pour
The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.
In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.
