How We Model Estimated Returns

The fine wine market has always been a blend of passion and performance. For some, the allure lies in the artistry of the vineyard; for others, it’s the steady, tangible returns that make fine wine a compelling alternative asset.

But here’s the perennial question for investors: when is the right time to invest?

In our latest analysis at WineFi, we examined one of the most sought-after segments of the market—red Burgundy—to see how timing influences returns. We compared all red Burgundy wines in our investment universe to the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index, the sector’s benchmark, and looked for patterns that could guide smarter entry and exit strategies.

The Findings at a Glance

Our data paints a clear picture of how red Burgundy performs at different stages of its lifecycle:

• 🚫 Don’t buy on release – On average, red Burgundy underperforms its benchmark in the first few years after release. That means paying top prices straight out of the gate often isn’t the best move for returns-focused investors.
  
  

• 🎯 Sweet spot: Year 6 – Performance begins to accelerate around the sixth year—coinciding with the median start of the wine’s drinking window. From here, returns tend to outpace the benchmark.
  
  

• 📈 Outperformance window: Years 6–25 – During this period, red Burgundy has historically delivered impressive relative gains. By year 25, the mean return in our dataset was 1.8x higher than the benchmark.
  
  

• ⚠️ After year 25: A trickier game – Performance tends to plateau, and volatility increases. As bottles become rarer and more valuable, prices can swing sharply in either direction. This aligns with the median end of red Burgundy’s drinking window, when investment and consumption dynamics shift.

Why This Matters for Investors

Fine wine, unlike many asset classes, is both finite and consumable. Every bottle opened reduces supply, creating scarcity—but also introducing unpredictability as remaining stock becomes fragmented across cellars worldwide.

By aligning purchases with a wine’s drinking window, investors can:

• Maximise potential upside by entering when market demand is strengthening.

• Reduce downside risk by avoiding the softer performance often seen in the early years.

• Plan exits strategically before volatility overtakes predictable growth.

The Limits (and Power) of the Data

While this study looks at the mean performance of all red Burgundy wines in our universe, individual results will vary significantly by producer, vintage, and even format (bottle size). Legendary producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti may defy these trends altogether, while lesser-known estates might follow them more closely.

Still, using drinking windows as a timing tool offers a practical framework for making better-informed decisions—especially for investors building diversified portfolios across regions and styles.

Final Pour

The data tells us that patience pays in fine wine investment—particularly in Burgundy. If you can resist the urge to buy on release and instead enter around year six, history suggests you’ll be swimming with the current rather than against it.

In fine wine, as in life, timing is everything. And for Burgundy lovers, that sixth-year mark might just be the moment when the stars—and the corks—align.

In Q2 2025, we have seen a stabilisation in wine market prices. In this quarterly report we dive into this finding to understand how list prices compare to trade prices, along with macro-analysis and regional comparisons.

In this edition, we explore:

🏦 Macroeconomic Analysis and the Effect on Wine Markets

📈 How Wine Compares to Other Assets

⚖️ Wine Market Stabilisation?

🔀 List Prices vs Trade Prices

🌍 Regional Performance Breakdown

We’re pleased to share our Q1 2025 Quarterly Report, offering a concise, data-driven overview of fine wine’s performance in the first quarter of the year. As macroeconomic pressures persist and traditional markets continue to fluctuate, fine wine’s role as an alternative asset class remains in sharp focus.

In this edition, we explore:

🏦 Macroeconomic Analysis and the Effect on Wine Markets

📈 How Wine Compares to Other Assets

⚖️ Wine Market Stabilisation?

🌍 Regional Performance Breakdown